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        <full_title>Agricultura, Sociedad y Desarrollo</full_title>
        <abbrev_title>ASYD</abbrev_title>
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        <titles>
          <title>Determinantes de largo plazo del tipo de cambio en México: 2001-2024</title>
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            <given_name>Israel</given_name>
            <surname>Reyes Reza</surname>
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            <given_name>José Saturnino</given_name>
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            <given_name>Miguel Angel</given_name>
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            <given_name>José Alberto</given_name>
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          <jats:p>Comprender las causas de las variaciones del tipo de cambio entre el peso mexicano y el dólar estadounidense, es fundamental para la competitividad de la economía nacional, caracterizada por una alta dependencia de insumos importados que incide directamente, en los costos de producción. El objetivo del estudio, fue analizar los determinantes de largo plazo del tipo de cambio nominal en México durante el periodo de 2001 a 2024, bajo la hipótesis de que los fundamentos monetarios y el ingreso real, explican su comportamiento. Se utilizaron series de tiempo mensuales de México y Estados Unidos. Las expectativas de inflación, se estimaron mediante modelos de series de tiempo autorregresivos, integrados de medias móviles (ARIMA) y la demanda real de dinero de largo plazo en México, se obtuvo a partir de una función tipo Cagan, de la cual, se derivaron la elasticidad ingreso y la sensibilidad frente a la inflación esperada. Posteriormente, se aplicó un modelo monetario de tipo de cambio, basado en diferenciales de oferta monetaria, ingreso real y expectativas de inflación entre ambas economías. Los resultados, muestran una demanda de dinero altamente elástica respecto al ingreso y poco sensible a la inflación esperada. El modelo monetario, presenta una correlación baja entre las tasas teóricas y observadas de variación del tipo de cambio, aunque con errores promedio reducidos. En conjunto, los hallazgos indican que el ingreso real, es el principal determinante del tipo de cambio nominal de largo plazo, la oferta monetaria tiene una influencia menor, las expectativas inflacionarias no resultaron relevantes.</jats:p>
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            <unstructured_citation>BLS - Bureau of Labor Statistics. 2025. Consumer Price Index data. Washington, DC, Estados Unidos: U.S. Department of Labor. https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUUR0000SA0</unstructured_citation>
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            <unstructured_citation>Cagan P. 1956. The monetary dynamics of hyperinflation. In: Friedman M (ed). Studies in the Quantity Theory of Money. Chicago, Estados Unidos: University of Chicago Press. https://people.bu.edu/rking/SZGcourse/Cagan.pdf. pp: 25–117.</unstructured_citation>
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