Transfer function model used to predict white egg prices, 2000 – 2017
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.22231/asyd.v19i2.1263Keywords:
SARIMA, Box Jenkins, sorghum, egg, prediction, poultry productionAbstract
Egg is one of the most accessible and widely available protein sources in the market. The objective of this study was to develop a time series model to predict monthly nominal average white egg prices paid to the producer (AWEPP) in Mexico using transfer function models (TFM) and to evaluate their relation with nominal average rural sorghum prices (NARSP). The parameters and the predictions were estimated with the maximum likelihood method and were statistically appropriate and significant. The best TFM that represented the behavior of AWEPP was that of two autoregressive coefficients, three of moving average, two degrees of denominator r, one degree of numerator s, and one coefficient b. It was found that the NARSP has an influence on the AWEPP one month later, decreasing the original variance of the AWEPP from 0.01036 to 0.009771 with the transfer model. The TFM generates better predictions of the AWEPP than the SARIMA model, because it takes into account the temporal evolution of the NARSP obtaining estimates that are closer to reality, useful for planning and for decision-making in the poultry sector in the short and medium term.
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