The price of peach for decision making by mexican producers

Authors

  • María I. Ortiz Rivera Colegio de Postgraduados Campus Montecillo
  • J. de Jesús Brambila Paz Colegio de Postgraduados Campus Montecillo
  • Daniel Barrera Islas Colegio de Postgraduados Campus Montecillo
  • E. de Jesús Arjona Suárez Colegio de Postgraduados Campus Montecillo
  • Glafiro Torres Hernández Colegio de Postgraduados Campus Montecillo
  • M. del Carmen López Reyna Colegio de Postgraduados Campus Montecillo

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.22231/asyd.v18i3.1482

Keywords:

dynamic economy; Prunus persica (L.) Batsch; agricultural prices

Abstract

Peach producers in Mexico form their production expectations based on the future price; they wait for the price to increase in order to continue with the agricultural activity, reason why they do not make the decision of seeking other uses and markets for the fruit, different from the fresh market. The objective of this study was to analyze the dynamics of the formation of the market price of peach in Mexico, its trend and volatility, in order to predict its trajectory through time. The hypothesis was that peach prices present high volatility and a negative trend that converges in a price with a constant. With the methodology of a dynamic model under a simple market, a differential second degree equation and a Brownian equation, it was found that the real price of peach presented severe fluctuation with negative trend; that the trajectory in time led the price of the fruit towards a constant equilibrium price, although it was low compared to the levels in previous periods. Thus, it was confirmed that the future price will not increase in the next 15 years and, as consequence, facing this scenario of uncertainty, the producers of this fruit could cease to continue investing in the activity.

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Published

2022-03-02

How to Cite

Rivera, M. I. O., Paz, J. de J. B., Islas, D. B., Suárez, E. de J. A., Hernández, G. T., & Reyna, M. del C. L. (2022). The price of peach for decision making by mexican producers. Agricultura, Sociedad Y Desarrollo, 18(3), 321–334. https://doi.org/10.22231/asyd.v18i3.1482

Issue

Vol. 18 No. 3 (2021): Agricultura, Sociedad y Desarrollo

Section

Artículos

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